LEADING CONTRARIAN ECONOMIST: “WE ARE COMING IN ON THE END GAME HERE”

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Debt is out of control and foreign holders of U.S. Treasury bonds are getting antsy

by MAC SLAVO | SHTFPLAN.COM | OCTOBER 21, 2014

To say that the U.S. economy is in trouble would be an understatement. According toShadow Stats economist John Williams, we may be on the very cusp of a crisis so severe that it promises to re-write the entire paradigm. Debt is out of control and foreign holders of U.S. Treasury bonds are getting antsy. Nowhere is this more obvious than in China and Russia, where leaders of the globe’s other super powers are feverishly working to distance themselves from the U.S. dollar by establishing new monetary relationships that completely bypass the world’s reserve currency.

A loss of confidence in America’s ability to manage its fiscal, economic and monetary policy coupled with a continued slowdown in growth could soon reveal what Williams calls “the end game.”

It’s coming sooner rather than later suggests Williams in a recent interview with Greg Hunter’s USA Watchdog:

“I can’t give you good reason for why the stock market is as high as it is. The fact you are seeing this volatility means there are a lot of people who are very nervous about what is going on and where things are in the market.It is probably one of the great bubbles of all time. It most likely will collapse along the lines of the U.S. dollar in response to the reality of no economic recovery. . . . I can’t think of a more vulnerable market than what we are seeing here.”

You are getting a confluence of extraordinary factors that are coming together that will cause the dollar to break. You’ll have a panic flight from the dollar along with dumping of U.S. Treasury bonds by foreign owners. We are coming in on the end game here.”

“I have been forecasting hyper-inflation in 2014 for some years now. We are coming to the end of 2014, and it hasn’t happened. A prerequisite is a collapse in the dollar. A collapse in the dollar can happen at anytime . . . and at this point, I am not looking to change the outlook.”

“I have had a lot of calls from clients recently to that effect, yes. I can tell you what they are seeing in terms of their business, after adjusting for inflation, and that’s using the government’s inflation number; they are not seeing any sales growth. How can you have no sales growth in 80% of the economy and have a booming economy? It’s not happening.”

Since 2010 John Williams has repeatedly warned of a coming hyperinflationary event that will leave the United States decimated. With the loss of purchasing power of the U.S. dollar will also come disruptions to the normal flow of commerce, including domestic supply chains.

As the dollar breaks down, you’ll also likely see disruptions in supply chains, including shipments of food to grocery stores. People should consider maintaining stockpiles of basic goods needed for living, much as they would for a natural disaster.

I have a supply of goods and basic necessities in case something terrible happens-natural or man-made-that will carry me for a couple of months. It may take that long for a barter system to evolve, which I think is what you’re going to end up with; at least until a new currency system is reorganized and you get a government that’s able to bring its fiscal house into order.
It’s an effect we saw happen in Greece several years ago when debt levels got to such levels that no one was willing to lend the collapsing nation any money. This led to a widespread breakdown – people were fighting for food, life-saving medicines were unavailable, power regulators almost shut down electricity to the entire country, andbarter networks sprung up because money was simply not available to the average person.

What became valuable in Greece is exactly what you might expect – physical assets.

The price of precious metals sky rocketed on the streets of Greece. Those with food were able to barter for other services. And those with specialized skills were able to trade their labor for essential goods.

The situation was dire, but with the U.S. and Europe eventually offering up billions of dollars in bailouts a complete collapse was averted.

This left many people with the impression that no matter how bad things get, there will always be a bailout.

But what happens when America experiences a similar crisis? Who will have enough money to bail us out? Which country will be willing to cough up trillions of dollars to support the U.S. financial system and economy?

Former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, who presided over the collapse of 2008, has said that the United States was on the brink of collapse. At the time Congress was warned that failure to pass the bank bailouts would have led to tanks on the streets of America.

Considering we have yet to resolve the fundamental issues that plagued our economy then, how bad will it get when the next crisis unfolds?

As Greece was falling apart one of our contributors contacted us to share how desperate things had gotten.

“My shotgun is full and well equipped. I hope i don’t need to use it.”
This is coming to America. Ayn Rand once said that we can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of reality.

If you haven’t take steps to do so, it’s time to get prepared for the consequences.

China surpasses US as world’s largest economy based on key measure

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China has surpassed the US in terms of GDP based on purchasing power parity (PPP), becoming the largest in the world by this measure, International Monetary Fund estimates show.

In 2014 China reached $17.6 trillion or 16.48 percent of the world’s purchasing-power-adjusted GDP, while the US made slightly less, 16.28 percent or $17.4 trillion, the FT reported citing IMF data.

PPP is recognized as the best way to compare the size of economies rather than using volatile exchange rates, which rarely reflect the true cost of goods and services. Thus a trillion US dollars are worth a lot more in China than in the US.

On the purchasing power basis, China is overtaking the US right about now and becoming the world’s biggest economy, according to the forecast.

The US has been the global leader since overtaking the UK in 1872. Most economists previously thought China would pull ahead in 2019.

According to IMF estimates, in 2015 the gap between China and the US will increase to almost a trillion dollars: Chinese GDP PPP will amount to $19.23 trillion against $18.286 trillion in the US.

However in terms of a real GDP the United States remains the undisputed world leader with $16.8 trillion output, significantly outpacing China with $10.4 trillion.

MANIPULATED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DROPS AS THE ECONOMIC COLLAPSE ACCELERATES

Euro zone business growth is the weakest this year

Euro zone business growth is the weakest this year. Unemployment rate dropped to 5.9% as the labor participation rate drops to a 36 year low. US housing prices are rolling over. The US Government is pushing the fear on Ebola to remove the peoples rights. An additional 1,000 troops is now being sent to Liberia bringing to the total to 4,000. U.S. Government admits they are funding the protests in Hong Kong. The people in the middle east are taking their countries back and the U.S. waived the sanctions for children in the armed forces to issue these countries millions of dollars. Turkey just voted for a buffer – no – fly – zone exactly what the U.S. wanted.

MORE BAD NEWS FROM THE JOBS FRONT

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US labor force continues its transition from first world to third world

by PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS | INFOWARS.COM | OCTOBER 3, 2014

The Bureau of Labor Statistics headline this morning reads: “Payroll employment increases by 248,000 in September; unemployment rate declines to 5.9%.”

How can this be? As I reported yesterday, US corporations are investing in buying back their own stocks, not in new business ventures that produce new jobs. http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/10/02/poverty-report-contradicts-gdp-claims-paul-craig-roberts/

According to the Census Bureau’s Poverty Report, US real median family income has declined to the level of twenty years ago. http://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2014/demo/p60-249.pdf

Consumer credit and real retail sales are not growing. Construction is limited to rental units. Construction shows 16,000 new jobs, half of which are “specialty trade contractors” or home remodelers.

The payroll jobs report lists 35,300 new jobs in retail trade. How is this possible when J.C. Penny’s, Macy’s, Sears, and the dollar store chains are in trouble and closing stores, and shopping centers are renting space by the day or hour?

At a time when there is a surfeit of office buildings and only 500 new jobs in “heavy and civil engineering construction,” the jobs report says 6,000 new jobs have been created in “architectural and engineering services.” What work are these architects and engineers doing?

The 4,900 computer systems jobs, if they exist, are likely short-term contracts from 6 to 18 months. Those who have the jobs are not employees but “independent contractors.”

The payroll jobs report gives an unusually high number–81,000–of “professional and business services” jobs of which 60,000 are “administrative and waste services,” primarily “temporary help services.”

“Health care and social assistance” accounts for 22,700 of the new jobs, of which 63 percent consist of “ambulatory health care services.”

“Performing arts and spectator sports” gave the economy 7,200 jobs, and 20,400 Americans found employment as waitresses and bartenders.

State governments hired 22,000 people.

Let’s overlook the contribution of the discredited “birth-death model” which overstates on average the monthly payroll jobs by at least 50,000, and let’s ignore the manipulation of seasonal adjustments. Instead, let’s assume the numbers are real. What kind of economy are we looking at?

We are looking at the workforce of a third world country with the vast bulk of the jobs in low-pay domestic service jobs. People working these part-time and independent contractor jobs cannot form a household or obtain a mortgage.

As John Titus, Dave Kranzler and I have shown, these jobs are filled by those aged 55 and over who take the low paying jobs in order to supplement meager retirement incomes. The baby boomers are the only part of the US labor force whose participation rate is rising. http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/09/04/lie-serves-rich-roberts-titus-kranzler/ Of the claimed new jobs in September, 230,000 or 93 percent were jobs filled by those 55 and older. Employment of Americans of prime working age (25-54) declined by10,000 jobs in September from the August level. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t09.htm

As the US labor force continues its transition from first world to third world, real median family income will continue to decline. Ladders of upward mobility will continue to be dismantled, and income and wealth will continue to concentrate in the pockets of the One Percent. America is truly a country run for the few.