BY ALEX SWOYER
BURLINGAME, California — GOP frontrunner Donald Trump looks like the early favorite ahead of the California GOP primary election on June 7th, according to the buzz at the California GOP Convention in Burlingame, California.
“If I were going to predict things, I think California will be the deciding final factor, the icing on the cake for Trump to get the nomination,” Political Director of the Monterey County GOP, Brandon Gesicki, told Breitbart News. He said, for a political consultant, this election has been historic and entertaining.
He also said neither former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s endorsement of Ohio Gov. John Kasich nor Carly Fiorina, who ran against
“I think the election is already on a trajectory that it’s over, because there’s only one person that can get enough delegates to win. Nobody else can. I think the Cruz campaign is going to have its last hurrah this weekend and then Tuesday” in Indiana, he explained to Breitbart News.
On Schwarzenegger’s endorsement, Gesicki said, “I don’t think it’s going to hurt that much,” but added, “if you look at the polling numbers, it looks like Donald Trump is going to do very well in California.”
Nan Lesnick, the past Chair of the Monterey County Republican Party, also told Breitbart News Trump is growing stronger and stronger and that it may be too late for the Cruz-Carly combination to have any weight with California voters.
“Trump is strong, getting stronger,” she said. “People don’t necessarily have a reason to think they will be represented by the Cruz-Carly combination. It was a political move for her to join up with him on both parts,” Lesnick stated. She added that she thinks people view it as “politics as usual.”
She also suggested Fiorina’s previous campaign experience in California wouldn’t help Cruz’s ground game. “It would be nice if I can say yes, but I have to say no I don’t think so.”
“I think that it’s too little too late and she was a candidate herself. I really don’t know the answer to that,” she added.
Breitbart News asked if Schwarzenegger’s endorsement of Kasich would have any impact on the election. “None whatsoever. I don’t think people even know what Arnold did,” she responded.
Annette De Modena of Humboldt County appeared to agree with Lesnick about Schwarzenegger, saying his support has “an ice cube’s chance in you know where” to impact the election. However, De Modena suggested selecting Fiorina was a favorable move for Cruz. “I think his choice is wise because Carly is an extremely strong leader and she looks at things in a totally different way and brings great insights and maturity to the job.”
Lesnick explained that like most of the country, Trump’s outsider appeal will help him in California.
“I think they’re leaning Trump because as we were just talking about around this table, when people elected Republicans and sent them to D.C. with promises that they would represent them, they weren’t represented,” Lesnick said about California voters. “I think that gives Trump a lot of ground.”
Lesnick said national security and jobs are top priorities in California, as well as the guest worker issue.
“We’ve got the guest worker issue and we need a solution to that,” she told Breitbart News.
“Ag and tourism are the engine that run that county,” she said of Monterey County, saying the people who are in agriculture are worried about the work force because more seasonal workers are needed during harvest. “But along with that issue comes a concern about security.”
“Jobs and security, I think very much in this area are tied to one another,” she added.
Breitbart News learned about 600 tickets for the banquet sold out for both Trump’s and Cruz’s speeches. Trump sold out rapidly. At last check, Kasich’s ticket count was near 500.
A MILITARY police unit have carried out European Union-funded special training, ready to be deployed in the event of civil unrest or war.
By VINCENT WOOD
Breitbart London reported that the exercise was attended by 600 members of various European police and military forces, in a bid to prepare the united troops of the European Gendarmerie Force.
The military police group is made up of seven European nations, including Spain, Romania, Poland and Germany, and aims to quell post conflict scenarios within EU member states.
The Gendarmerie is made of military police from various nations including France (pictured)
It went on to describe the exercises carried out, including “carousel training, with attention being given to all policing skills, including community policing and social patrols, crowd and riot control, SWAT teams and forensic investigation”.
European affairs spokesman for the German Government Andrej Huko asked to attend, but was blocked from coming close to the site.
The training exercised was funded by the EU
He went on to argue that the, “militarisation of the police” is, “extremely worrying and contrary in Germany to the principle of separation of police and military”.
It comes as fears rise that the European Union could form its own army, with one ex-commander of British troops in Afghanistan claiming it could undermine NATO and UK defences.
The highly-criticised prospect of an EU army was re-energised in March 2015 when European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker called for an international force.
Politicians in the UK have since poured cold water on the idea, saying it would be undeliverable, would weaken Britain’s standing in the world and would be blocked by the UK’s veto powers.
But Col Kemp, who formerly worked for the Joint Intelligence Committee, which advises the British Government on issues of national security, said: “If we left the EU, we would undermine the EU’s ultimate plan of forming an EU army, and that is exactly what they are going to be doing.”
Trump protesters clash with police outside the California Republican Convention in Burlingame, Calif.
(Marcus Yam / Los Angeles Times)
Latino activists said they expect more large protests as Donald Trump moves his presidential campaign into California.
“I think it’s going to get worse if he gets the nomination and is the front-runner. I think it’s going to escalate,” said Luis Serrano, an organizer with California Immigration Youth Justice Alliance. “We’re going to keep showing up and standing against the actions and the hate Donald Trump is creating. We are going to continue to just show up in numbers and stand together.”
Trump has faced protests during several stops in California over the past few months, but they escalated considerably this week.
The billionaire businessman is leading in several polls of California Republican voters. But his outspoken comments about people in this country illegally and advocacy for a border wall have sparked a backlash by younger Latinos, said Carlos Perea, an immigrant rights organizer who was at the Costa Mesa rally.
“Young people went to the streets and said ‘We’ve had enough of this,’ ” he said.
The next test could come Sunday, whena May Day rally is planned in downtown Los Angeles.
Los Angeles police have been meeting with demonstrators for some time in order to ensure a peaceful protest.
“We expect May Day to be peaceful,” LAPD Asst. Chief Michel Moore said. “We are always prepared for any eventuality were anything to happen. But we have nothing to suggest that will be the case.”
Protest organizers in Southern California said the anti-Trump demonstrations spread through word of mouth and involved mostly young people, including many high school and college students. They brought with them Mexican flags, which were once discouraged at immigrant rights rallies for fear they would be regarded as un-American.
The demonstrations outside the Pacific Amphitheatre in Costa Mesa on Thursday night blocked traffic and caused tense moments. Some protesters performed screeching burnouts in their cars or did doughnuts at intersections. Others kicked at and punched approaching vehicles, shouting expletives. Ranchera and hip-hop music was blasted throughout the streets. At least 17 people were arrested, and both a Trump supporter and a teenage anti-Trump protester were hurt.
Some have expressed concern about the tenure of the protests.
“While I share the community’s anger and frustration, destroying public property is not the answer,” Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-Norwalk) said Friday in a statement. “When we resort to violence, we’re playing into the very hands of people like Donald Trump. I believe the solution must be peaceful protest and more importantly, directing our energy toward shifting our voter-registration efforts into high gear.”
In Burlingame, five protesters were arrested and a sheriff’s deputy was injured during the Trump protest there.
Yet Obama blasts anyone critical of economy…
APRIL 30, 2016
Mark Twain is credited with saying “figures don’t lie, but liars figure.” If he were around today Twain’s quote might go something like this: “Figures do lie, and liars figure out how to make people believe them.”
Granted, not as catchy.
But my quote goes a long way toward explaining something that is bothering many political pundits today. President Obama whined last week that he’s not getting enough credit for the economy.
Democrats are besides themselves wondering why Americans are so angry that they might be willing to elect Donald Trump president when the official unemployment rate is only 5%, oil prices are near their lowest level in a decade and the economy has been expanding for seven straight years.
Why aren’t Americans happier?
One of those pundits made me chuckle Tuesday night when he was talking about Trump’s primaries victories in another five states. He suggested that Americans were somehow being brainwashed by the media into thinking the economy was really bad when in fact it was good.
Then, on Thursday, the Commerce Department showed just how good the economy wasn’t. It announced that the Gross Domestic Product grew by an annual rate of just 0.5% in the first three months of 2016.
But that didn’t stop the media from trying to explain away the disappointment.
The New York Times, for example, suggested softly that “the recovery has two sides.” Toward the bottom of the piece, it included the startling facts that “factories shed nearly 50,000 jobs in February and March, wiping out all of the gains recorded last year. The proportion of Americans in the active labor force remains depressed by historical standards, and more than 6 million workers say they are in part-time positions because they cannot find full-time work.”
But hey, the paper continued, we found some anecdotes of companies that are hiring!
It’s not just political spin, however, that explains the rose-colored coverage. Another explanation is that the media is plain stupid — quick to accept guidance from economists on Wall Street, for example, who have a vested interest in making everything wonderful.
Economists understand what “statistical noise” is. If you don’t, here’s a definition from a website called WiseGeek: “Strictly defined, statistical noise is a term that refers to the unexplained variation or randomness that is found within a given data sample or formula. There are two primary forms of it: errors and residuals.”
In other words, economic statistics may not make sense in the short term because something is innocently interfering with the accuracy of the data or someone is intentionally fooling with the numbers.
I don’t think anyone today is intentionally fooling with the nation’s economic data, although I’ve proven that there were questionable data collections leading up to the presidential election in 2012. These days, I think the data is simply misleading.
Take the economic data that came out throughout the first quarter of 2016 as an example.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta keeps real-time track of the nation’s economy using something it calls GDPNow.
At the beginning of January, GDPNow was showing that US economy growth was around a 2.7% annualized rate. By last week, GDPNow had been ratcheted all the way down to 0.6% — which was slightly better than the actual number reported on Thursday by the Commerce Department.
How could the Atlanta Fed have been so wrong? Statistical noise made it tone-deaf to what was going on in the real world.
As I correctly predicted last December, the government’s economic data in the first quarter was thrown off by inaccurate seasonal adjustments, among other things.
Seasonal adjustments try to smooth out predictable economic patterns so that data doesn’t bounce around. You don’t want data to show that, for instance, millions of jobs are lost in the summertime just because teachers are temporarily laid off.
Seasonal adjustment programs typically look back five years to see what constitutes “normal.” But economic growth in the first quarters of both 2014 and 2015 was dismal because of horrible weather. So I conjectured in December that the government’s computers would overreact to any normal growth in 2016.
And that seems to be what happened. Early in the first quarter the government reported better-than-expected data (which led to the Atlanta Fed’s bad forecast of 2.6% growth). But those numbers were then quickly revised over the next few months.
This sort of statistical noise has been going on for years, mostly because the Great Recession threw off normal adjustments. And this will continue to happen. US economic data today is untrustworthy. Even worse, it is causing the Federal Reserve and others to make bad decisions.
This unpredictable, inaccurate data is causing politicians and others to incorrectly understand the mood of the nation.
Americans are angry because they don’t care about the statistical noise — they care about what they see with their own eyes.
True, there may have been 15 million new jobs created during the Obama administration — which, on the surface, is laudable. But that’s about half what was needed to both absorb newcomers to the workforce and those who were laid off over the past decade and would like to return.
And that drop in the unemployment rate that everyone likes to point to? Even the Fed doesn’t trust it and has formulated its own replacement gauge.
Here’s why: When you count all the workers who have been stuck with part-time employment or who haven’t searched for work in a year, the jobless rate is twice the official 5% level. And many of the full-time jobs created have been in the lower-paying service sector of the economy.
When you include those people who haven’t sought a job in more than a year, the unemployment rate jumps much higher.
How high? Washington doesn’t even bother trying to calculate what it is.
One last statistic, from Sentier Research. Median annual household income in the US reached $57,263 this past March, which was 4.5% higher than in March 2015.
But — and here’s where the anger comes in — this March’s figure is still slightly below the $57,342 median annual income in January 2000.
Americans haven’t gotten a raise in more than 16 years.
Statistical noise doesn’t just confuse economists and politicians. It also drowns out the sound of people complaining.